The 2015 runners-up only qualified for the last four on net run-rate and have lost their last three games against Pakistan, Australia and England. But if it's a washout on both days, then India qualifies for the final on the basis of having garnered more points (15) than New Zealand (11) in the league stage.
South Africa have been poor with the bat in the tournament but found form on an excellent wicket for stroke-making and posted their highest total of the World Cup.
New Zealand beat India in their first world cup clash in Manchester in 1975.
Roy has been one of the stand-out performers in England's World Cup campaign, where he is averaging 68 and has formed a formidable partnership alongside Jonny Bairstow, and has always been touted as a possible option for the Test side. New Zealand, who had a great start to the World Cup, have all of a sudden lost momentum.
But when they have reached the final - in 1979, 1987 and 1992 - England have finished runners-up to West Indies, Australia and Pakistan. "I guess in World Cups obviously big games get pumped up and where we stand is the fourth going into the semi-finals so naturally I guess they back India", he said.
New Zealand's opening partnership has been a disaster.
Australia and hosts England will play the other semifinal in Birmingham on Thursday.
India topped the group stage with just one defeat while their match against New Zealand in Nottingham was washed out.
After a comprehensive loss to England at Edgbaston in one of their group matches, India would rather not like to face England in the semi-finals and hence this match against Sri Lanka becomes very important for them.
In Australia's 64-run victory on June 25, Starc was able to unsettle Eoin Morgan with the short ball, leading to the England captain attempting to hook his way out of trouble only to find the fielder in the deep.
His fellow batsmen didn't have much better luck until David Warner and Alex Carey joined forces at 119-4.
Asked on BBC Radio 5 Live's Sportsweek if Roy could open in the Ashes, Bayliss said: "I think so, whether at the top of the order or at three".
Meanwhile, Richard Illingworth and Richard Kettleborough will preside over India v New Zealand at Old Trafford on Tuesday.
Australia may have already booked their place in the semifinals of the World Cup ahead of Saturday's round-robin finale against South Africa but the match still matters to coach Justin Langer.
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