Challenging forecast for Dorian, Tropical Depression 6 forms

Tuesday, 27 Aug, 2019

According to the National Hurricane Center's 5 a.m. advisory, Dorian is located east-southeast of Barbados.

The potentially unsafe system is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night.

Tropical storm warnings were in effect for several Caribbean islands Monday as Tropical Storm Dorian headed toward the region on a path that could send it skirting near Puerto Rico as a hurricane by midweek. Now, the increasingly organizing storm is expected to become a hurricane just after barreling through the Lesser Antilles Islands of Barbados, St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, which are currently under tropical storm warnings.

That storm, which has yet to earn a name, is now "an elongated area of low pressure centered about 280 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras", the National Hurricane Center said.

It added that the center of Dorian "is moving toward the west near 14 miles per hour (22 km/h)". This is also the period where Dorian is expected to be at its strongest, meaning the trio could be facing the worst of the storm.

Challenging forecast for Dorian, Tropical Depression 6 forms
Challenging forecast for Dorian, Tropical Depression 6 forms

Hinkson said that staff of the Sanitation Service Authority, the Ministry of Public Works and Maintenance, the National Conservation Commission and the National Housing Corporation will also be deployed to continue the clean-up ahead of the storm's impact.

The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, and this year includes the names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy. The winds of Dorian are not expected to impact the Virgin Islands.

Dorian may challenge this season's trend for short-lived tropical systems. Dorian is expected to strengthen into the season's first hurricane by Wednesday and is expected to hit Florida by Saturday.

Rainfall accumulations of at least four to six inches (100 to 150 mm) are expected with the possibility of higher isolated amounts. If the storm manages to overcome the hostile conditions and intensifies, both Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic will face a hurricane threat by midweek.

Major surf swells are due to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday with swells which could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.