The co-author of the study, Christopher Conselice, stated that the difference between their calculation and the previous ones, which were based on the Drake equation, is that they made simple assumptions about the development of life. "And" which part of life will turn into smart life? But to answer some of these questions, one would have to find and interact with another intelligent civilization first.
Estimating how common different kinds of planets are around different stars can provide important constraints on planet formation and evolution theories.
He said: "There should be at least a few dozen active civilisations in our Galaxy under the assumption that it takes five billion years for intelligent life to form on other planets, as on Earth". If it turns out that there are more civilizations in the galaxy than the new math predicts, it means that life can evolve in much broader conditions than just Earth, or it means that civilizations tend to have a much longer life than ours so far.
These Earth-like planets have roughly the same size, abundance in liquid water, and the same Sun-like stars that are signs of its possible habitable structure, which was said to be unique with Earth.
"The two Astrobiological Copernican Limits are that intelligent life forms in less than 5 billion years, or after about 5 billion years-similar to on Earth where a communicating civilisation formed after 4.5 billion years".
Another assumption of these potential civilizations is that they somehow announce their presence through signals. One good method of doing this is through the use of radio transmissions using television, satellites, and similar means. Our "technological" civilization is about a hundred years old. So envision around 36 others doing likewise over the world.
The specialists were astounded that the number was so little - however not zero. If extraterrestrial civilizations are likely to be distributed evenly across the Milky Way, our closest neighbor would be 17,000 light-years away. Communicating over these distances is impossible with today's technology. Are we the only living life form in the galaxy? Approximately 700 years are required to detect this. "There should be at least a few dozen active civilizations in our Galaxy", says Google Scholar, Conselice.
And then there is the problem of survival.
Earth is very unique when it comes to its capacity to host life in this universe.
Next, the specialists will look past our universe to check whether life may exist outside of its limits.
Despite the new estimate, the researchers acknowledge it's still very possible that we could be alone: If other broadcasting civilizations exist, they might not survive for as long as humankind has and so we might not exist at the same time. By doing this search, regardless if we find any, we also discover our own fate and future.
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