Oil rises, but US-China trade war impacts outlook

Пятница, 13 Дек, 2019

Oil prices dropped for a second straight session as the cons of a slowing global demand outlook outweighed the pros of OPEC's agreement with associated producers at the end of last week to deepen crude output cuts in early 2020, Reuters reported.

The IEA noted the muted response of oil markets to the latest OPEC+ deal, with the price of the main worldwide contract, Brent crude, rising by just $1 to around $64 per barrel.

Crude inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week to December 6 to 447 million.

In its latest monthly report, the IEA estimated that the net impact of the pledges would be a reduction of 530,000 barrels per day from November levels.

Brent futures rose 19 cents, or 0.3% to 63.61 a barrel by 0100 GMT, after skidding 1% on Wednesday on the US stocks build-up.

Worldwide benchmark Brent crude was trading at $63.95 per barrel at 0940 GMT for 0.37% loss after closing Tuesday at $64.19 a barrel.

Still, U.S. inventories are on the rise.

"Being able to meet the future global demand for oil depends on countries like Venezuela". Non-OPEC supply, meanwhile, will rise to 64.46 million b/d in 2020, up 2.17 million bpd from 2019, driven by gains in the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway, OPEC said.

Yet more potentially positive news on Tuesday came in the form of a Reuters poll forecasting that USA crude inventories dipped last week - although it's unclear if the notoriously unreliable poll has any influence left over traders.

The EIA data also showed supply increases of 5.4 million barrels for gasoline and 4.1 million barrels for distillates.

Refinery crude runs fell by 201,000 bpd as utilization rates fell 1.3 percentage points to 90.6% of total refining capacity, EIA data showed. Analysts were expecting a fall of 2.8 million barrels. "The market is reacting to headline number, but we don't see this as a trend, we see it as a one-off", Flynn said.

"A week ago, OPEC surprised with less oil than expected", said Olivier Jakob, managing director at consultants Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland.

"The post-OPEC bullish jolt is all but a distant memory", PVM oil market analysts said referring to a decision last week by OPEC and its allies to deepen supply cuts amid a weak outlook for oil demand growth next year.

The IEA estimates total USA oil production growth will slow to 1.1 million bpd in 2020 from 1.6 million bpd this year. "There's uncertainty around fuel demand growth because of the world trade crisis", McGillian said.